{ "schema_version": "1.0.0", "release_id": "audit-2026-10-06.53", "as_of_date": "2026-10-06", "subject": "Data-center energizations and electricity-price outcomes", "preferred_vintage": "final_2012_2024", "important_distinction": "The repeated-MW model is the central estimand. First-threshold-crossing estimates are sensitivity analyses with smaller eligible samples.", "vintages": { "final_2012_2024": { "id": "final_2012_2024", "label": "Final EIA-861 2012–2024", "outcome_max_year": 2024, "outcome_source": "EIA-861 final 2012-2024", "central_repeated_mw_estimate": { "status": "preferred", "estimand": "Cumulative residential-price response two years after an additional documented 100 MW is energized in a utility-state unit", "model": "Utility-state fixed effects, additive year effects, prior-flow controls, and state-clustered inference", "exposure_unit_mw": 100, "horizon_years": 2, "estimate_pct_per_100mw": 0.9807954588, "confidence_interval_95_pct_per_100mw": [ 0.2433948335, 1.7236204782 ], "standard_error_log_points": 0.0037393764, "p_value": 0.0119118847, "wild_cluster_p_value": 0.233, "estimate_for_250mw": { "megawatts": 250, "estimate_pct": 2.470054839547031, "confidence_interval_95_pct": [ 0.6095982976828562, 4.364914645142792 ] }, "support": { 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preliminary 2025", "central_repeated_mw_estimate": { "status": "preferred", "estimand": "Cumulative residential-price response two years after an additional documented 100 MW is energized in a utility-state unit", "model": "Utility-state fixed effects, additive year effects, prior-flow controls, and state-clustered inference", "exposure_unit_mw": 100, "horizon_years": 2, "estimate_pct_per_100mw": 0.9101755423, "confidence_interval_95_pct_per_100mw": [ 0.0567046174, 1.7709264652 ], "standard_error_log_points": 0.0043335197, "p_value": 0.0416479353, "wild_cluster_p_value": 0.255, "estimate_for_250mw": { "megawatts": 250, "estimate_pct": 2.290995262930773, "confidence_interval_95_pct": [ 0.1418218441943342, 4.486292731527142 ] }, "support": { "observations": 21739, "utility_state_units": 2102, "state_clusters": 51, "mapped_addition_rows_all_years": 397, "additions_ge_2mw_in_support_window": 151, "treated_utility_state_units": 60 } }, "first_threshold_crossing_sensitivities": { "estimand": 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0.7184470516 ], "standard_error_pct_approx": 1.8928439337, "p_value": 0.1200016308, "eligible_treated_utility_state_units": 5, "observation_count": 24684, "utility_state_unit_count": 2829, "state_cluster_count": 51 }, { "threshold_mw": 50, "time_fixed_effects": "state_by_year", "estimate_pct": 1.8204905013, "confidence_interval_95_pct": [ -2.4702433695, 6.2999913473 ], "standard_error_pct_approx": 2.1966243954, "p_value": 0.4153665707, "eligible_treated_utility_state_units": 13, "observation_count": 24790, "utility_state_unit_count": 2837, "state_cluster_count": 51 }, { "threshold_mw": 150, "time_fixed_effects": "additive_year", "estimate_pct": 0.8459961006, "confidence_interval_95_pct": [ -6.7828555157, 9.0991897015 ], "standard_error_pct_approx": 4.0134134496, "p_value": 0.8345944083, "eligible_treated_utility_state_units": 4, "observation_count": 24940, "utility_state_unit_count": 2848, "state_cluster_count": 51 }, { "threshold_mw": 150, "time_fixed_effects": "state_by_year", "estimate_pct": 2.711184163, "confidence_interval_95_pct": [ -3.8662878361, 9.7386870297 ], "standard_error_pct_approx": 3.3765793309, "p_value": 0.4319599502, "eligible_treated_utility_state_units": 4, "observation_count": 24940, "utility_state_unit_count": 2848, "state_cluster_count": 51 } ] }, "raw_results": { "cumulative_json": "/data/repaired-cumulative-site-2025er.json", "threshold_json": "/data/repaired-threshold-suite-site-2025er.json", "cumulative_flow_panel_csv": "/data/repaired-cumulative-flow-panel-2025er.csv" } } }, "machine_notes": { "reference_period": "Event time −1 is normalized to zero, including its confidence interval.", "canada": "Canadian records appear in the descriptive census and grid-link files but never enter the U.S. causal treatment panel.", "wholesale_prices": "Bloomberg-style and direct ISO data concern wholesale node or H3-cell prices, not residential retail bills.", "mpqw_replication": "The Meeks–Pless–Qi–Wang analysis matches the 2010–2024 contiguous-U.S. outcome window, compares all four main price outcomes under county-broadcast and audited serving-utility treatments, tests year-specific historical territories, reconstructs nine public FERC Form 1 mechanisms on an investor-owned-utility panel, and catalogs all 331 tabulated estimates. The proprietary Aterio treatment panel and S&P rate-case panel remain unavailable. Appendix Table A11 appears to reverse its Yes/No headings.", "bonaparte_bagwe_replications": "Bonaparte SSRN 7361819 is a treatment-substitution reconstruction because its state-capacity source is undisclosed. Bagwe et al. SSRN 6685418 is reconstructed from the recoverable Business Insider permit graphic, EIA-861, Census controls, HIFLD territories, DOE county energy profiles, and public PUDL/FERC Form 1 data. The extension replaces permits with audited energizations and removes county pseudo-replication with one observation per utility-state." } }