{
  "early_release_partial_reporter_set": false,
  "generated_on": "2026-08-31",
  "headline": {
    "audited_serving_utility": {
      "joint_pretrend_effective_rank": 13,
      "joint_pretrend_estimable": true,
      "joint_pretrend_max_abs_t": 1.4955601524690034,
      "joint_pretrend_method": "joint Wald test of aggregated event-time leads (t<-1); influence-function covariance; df=effective rank",
      "joint_pretrend_p_value": 0.05609199993796281,
      "joint_pretrend_restrictions": 13,
      "joint_pretrend_wald": 21.95314664853422,
      "mapping": "audited_serving_utility",
      "never_treated_units": 1162,
      "overall_att_pct": 2.3975438742614865,
      "overall_ci_high_pct": 6.090257221292203,
      "overall_ci_low_pct": -1.2951694727692296,
      "overall_p_value": 0.20317549935786394,
      "overall_se_pp": 1.884037421954447,
      "post_treatment_rows": 214,
      "sample_rows": 16625,
      "threshold_mw": 5,
      "treated_units": 29,
      "utilities": 1103,
      "utility_state_units": 1191,
      "year2_att_pct": 1.1817703403514643,
      "year2_ci_high_pct": 4.446697702275572,
      "year2_ci_low_pct": -2.083157021572643,
      "year2_se_pp": 1.6657792662878101
    },
    "interpretation": "Replacing the county-wide treatment broadcast with documented serving utilities changes the point estimate and sharply reduces the treated sample in this public-data replication attempt. The confidence intervals overlap and neither overall estimate rejects zero, so this is treatment-definition sensitivity rather than evidence of a statistically different effect.",
    "paper_county_broadcast": {
      "joint_pretrend_effective_rank": 13,
      "joint_pretrend_estimable": true,
      "joint_pretrend_max_abs_t": 1.6990423580162255,
      "joint_pretrend_method": "joint Wald test of aggregated event-time leads (t<-1); influence-function covariance; df=effective rank",
      "joint_pretrend_p_value": 0.15762961364151298,
      "joint_pretrend_restrictions": 13,
      "joint_pretrend_wald": 17.997099767413573,
      "mapping": "paper_county_broadcast",
      "never_treated_units": 968,
      "overall_att_pct": 1.3165966685733312,
      "overall_ci_high_pct": 3.413575593933513,
      "overall_ci_low_pct": -0.7803822567868502,
      "overall_p_value": 0.21847478848319024,
      "overall_se_pp": 1.0698872068164191,
      "post_treatment_rows": 918,
      "sample_rows": 15132,
      "threshold_mw": 5,
      "treated_units": 115,
      "utilities": 1005,
      "utility_state_units": 1083,
      "year2_att_pct": 0.9424465934723749,
      "year2_ci_high_pct": 2.4584079143633315,
      "year2_ci_low_pct": -0.5735147274185814,
      "year2_se_pp": 0.7734496535157941
    }
  },
  "matched_design": [
    "EIA-861 annual bundled-service residential revenue per MWh",
    "utility-state panel with short-form utilities excluded",
    "first county-year reaching 5 MW as absorbing treatment",
    "Callaway-Sant'Anna doubly robust inverse-probability-tilting estimator",
    "never-treated comparison group and event time -1 normalized to zero"
  ],
  "not_an_exact_replication_because": [
    "The paper's Aterio treatment panel is proprietary and not included with the paper.",
    "The paper's S&P rate-case panel is not public; its public Form 1 mechanisms are independently reconstructed here."
  ],
  "outcome_vintage": "final_2010_2024",
  "outcome_years": [
    2010,
    2024
  ],
  "outputs": [
    "mpqw_specification_comparison.csv",
    "mpqw_threshold_comparison.csv",
    "mpqw_event_study.csv",
    "mpqw_analysis_panel.csv",
    "mpqw_table2_outcome_comparison.csv",
    "mpqw_paper_estimate_catalog.csv",
    "mpqw_paper_estimate_catalog.json",
    "mpqw_design_audit.csv",
    "mpqw_methods.md"
  ],
  "paper": {
    "authors": "Meeks, Pless, Qi, and Wang",
    "paper_residential_overall_att_pct": 2.1,
    "paper_residential_se_pp": 0.8,
    "ssrn_abstract_id": "6967558",
    "table2_outcomes": [
      {
        "estimate_pct": 2.7,
        "outcome": "all",
        "se_pp": 0.9
      },
      {
        "estimate_pct": 2.1,
        "outcome": "residential",
        "se_pp": 0.8
      },
      {
        "estimate_pct": 2.8,
        "outcome": "commercial",
        "se_pp": 0.9
      },
      {
        "estimate_pct": 4.2,
        "outcome": "industrial",
        "se_pp": 1.6
      }
    ],
    "title": "Who Pays for Growth? Evidence from Data Centers and the Grid"
  },
  "paper_issues": [
    {
      "extension_test": "Re-estimate with the audited campus-to-serving-utility crosswalk and compare with the county-broadcast rule.",
      "issue": "Serving-utility assignment",
      "paper_choice": "Treat every utility whose territory touches any part of an opening county.",
      "status": "tested",
      "why_it_matters": "A county can contain several utilities; non-serving utilities can be misclassified as treated."
    },
    {
      "extension_test": "Report 2/5/20/50/150 MW thresholds and the signed repeated-MW model.",
      "issue": "Treatment intensity",
      "paper_choice": "Convert first county-year with at least 5 MW into a permanent binary treatment.",
      "status": "tested",
      "why_it_matters": "A 5 MW and a 500 MW opening receive the same treatment; later additions are discarded."
    },
    {
      "extension_test": "Retain every supported annual MW increment with distributed-lag responses.",
      "issue": "Repeat additions",
      "paper_choice": "Keep only the first qualifying county-year.",
      "status": "tested",
      "why_it_matters": "Multi-phase campuses and later facilities in the same utility are omitted from treatment dose."
    },
    {
      "extension_test": "Enter documented retirement MW as negative flows and publish the lifecycle ledger.",
      "issue": "Retirements",
      "paper_choice": "Permanent treatment after first entry.",
      "status": "tested",
      "why_it_matters": "Documented exits cannot reduce exposure."
    },
    {
      "extension_test": "Publish joint pretrend tests, future-flow placebos, and clean-window/event-timing checks.",
      "issue": "No anticipation",
      "paper_choice": "Use activation year as treatment while the paper's own mechanism estimates begin moving before activation.",
      "status": "tested",
      "why_it_matters": "Pre-activation investment and planning can violate the estimator's no-anticipation condition and make activation a late treatment date, even though the paper appropriately discusses those early mechanism movements."
    },
    {
      "extension_test": "Keep this limitation explicit and emphasize the all-utility bundled outcome for direct comparison.",
      "issue": "Deregulated-state outcome",
      "paper_choice": "Use bundled/default-service EIA price where retail choice exists.",
      "status": "partially_testable",
      "why_it_matters": "Bundled customers are a selected and shrinking subset, so the heterogeneity estimand can change with switching."
    },
    {
      "extension_test": "Publish mapped serving-utility results and ownership-matched checks where support permits.",
      "issue": "Ownership heterogeneity controls",
      "paper_choice": "Compare treated ownership groups with all never-treated utilities.",
      "status": "extension_documented",
      "why_it_matters": "Control composition can differ from the treated ownership class."
    },
    {
      "extension_test": "Publish estimates, intervals, and treated-unit counts at every threshold.",
      "issue": "Threshold sensitivity",
      "paper_choice": "State that results are similar and grow with threshold without publishing the full numerical path.",
      "status": "tested",
      "why_it_matters": "Readers cannot audit sample collapse, monotonicity, or uncertainty."
    },
    {
      "extension_test": "Report an influence-function Wald test of the aggregated event-time leads and the project's wild-cluster joint-lead tests.",
      "issue": "Formal pretrend inference",
      "paper_choice": "Show event-study leads and describe little visual evidence of differential pretrends, without reporting an omnibus lead test.",
      "status": "tested",
      "why_it_matters": "Individual lead intervals are not a formal joint test of the displayed pre-treatment event-time path."
    },
    {
      "extension_test": "Keep Tables 5 and 6 cataloged, but label their S&P outcome panel as unreleased rather than implying that all mechanism inputs are private.",
      "issue": "Rate-case mechanism reproducibility",
      "paper_choice": "Use the proprietary S&P Regulatory Research Associates rate-case panel.",
      "status": "not_publicly_replicable",
      "why_it_matters": "The requested and authorized rate-base, revenue, ROE, case-type, and case-duration outcomes are not released with the paper."
    },
    {
      "extension_test": "Reconstruct Tables A6 and A9 from version-pinned public Form 1 data and a public FERC-to-EIA utility crosswalk.",
      "issue": "FERC investment mechanism reproducibility",
      "paper_choice": "Use S&P's compilation of public FERC Form 1 filings.",
      "status": "public_reconstruction_added",
      "why_it_matters": "The underlying filings are public even though the paper's cleaned S&P extract is not released."
    },
    {
      "extension_test": "Flag the apparent label reversal for correction by the authors.",
      "issue": "Appendix table labels",
      "paper_choice": "Table A11 labels 'Yes' with 939 utilities and 'No' with 34.",
      "status": "paper_error",
      "why_it_matters": "The labels are reversed relative to Table A10's 3.8% tariff prevalence and the paper's own text."
    }
  ],
  "paper_issues_count": 12,
  "replication_label": "specification-matched treatment-substitution replication attempt",
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "table2_outcome_comparison": [
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      "estimate_pct": 2.7,
      "mapping": "proprietary_Aterio_plus_county_broadcast",
      "outcome": "all",
      "sample_end_year": 2024,
      "sample_rows": 14733,
      "sample_start_year": 2010,
      "se_pp": 0.9,
      "source": "MPQW paper Table 2",
      "utilities": 973,
      "utility_state_units": 1048
    },
    {
      "estimate_pct": 0.49077772166642114,
      "mapping": "paper_county_broadcast",
      "outcome": "all",
      "sample_end_year": 2024,
      "sample_rows": 15132,
      "sample_start_year": 2010,
      "se_pp": 1.1857927719799548,
      "source": "Independent treatment-substitution replication",
      "utilities": 1005,
      "utility_state_units": 1083
    },
    {
      "estimate_pct": 1.9686670983889443,
      "mapping": "audited_serving_utility",
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      "sample_end_year": 2024,
      "sample_rows": 16625,
      "sample_start_year": 2010,
      "se_pp": 1.9231088863769803,
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      "utilities": 1103,
      "utility_state_units": 1191
    },
    {
      "estimate_pct": 2.1,
      "mapping": "proprietary_Aterio_plus_county_broadcast",
      "outcome": "residential",
      "sample_end_year": 2024,
      "sample_rows": 14733,
      "sample_start_year": 2010,
      "se_pp": 0.8,
      "source": "MPQW paper Table 2",
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    },
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      "outcome": "residential",
      "sample_end_year": 2024,
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      "se_pp": 1.0698872068164191,
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    },
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      "outcome": "residential",
      "sample_end_year": 2024,
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    },
    {
      "estimate_pct": 2.8,
      "mapping": "proprietary_Aterio_plus_county_broadcast",
      "outcome": "commercial",
      "sample_end_year": 2024,
      "sample_rows": 14733,
      "sample_start_year": 2010,
      "se_pp": 0.9,
      "source": "MPQW paper Table 2",
      "utilities": 973,
      "utility_state_units": 1048
    },
    {
      "estimate_pct": 0.06271879029297017,
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    },
    {
      "estimate_pct": 2.781002048739856,
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      "sample_end_year": 2024,
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    },
    {
      "estimate_pct": 4.2,
      "mapping": "proprietary_Aterio_plus_county_broadcast",
      "outcome": "industrial",
      "sample_end_year": 2024,
      "sample_rows": 14733,
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    }
  ],
  "threshold_results": [
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      "joint_pretrend_estimable": true,
      "joint_pretrend_max_abs_t": 2.142568418519015,
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      "joint_pretrend_p_value": 0.03747097136252651,
      "joint_pretrend_restrictions": 13,
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      "overall_att_pct": 0.7934999827379876,
      "overall_ci_high_pct": 2.9191122030354593,
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