# Watts My Bill: machine-readable research guide

## Release identity

- Release ID: audit-2026-10-06.53
- Data date: 2026-10-06
- Human interface: https://wattsmybill.org/
- Machine catalog: https://wattsmybill.org/data/catalog.json
- Release summary: https://wattsmybill.org/data/release-summary.json
- Checksums: https://wattsmybill.org/data/checksums.sha256

## Research question and outcome

The project estimates how documented data-center energizations affect U.S. residential electricity prices. The central outcome is annual utility-level residential revenue per kilowatt-hour from EIA-861. The 2025 early-release panel is published separately because it contains a partial reporter set.

## Preferred estimate

The central specification retains repeated openings and later capacity increments rather than reducing each host utility to a single treatment date. It uses utility-state fixed effects, additive year effects, prior-flow controls, and state-clustered inference.

Final 2012–2024 result at year two:

- +0.98% per additional 100 MW.
- +2.47% for 250 MW.
- 95% interval for 250 MW: +0.61% to +4.36%.
- Wild-cluster p-value: 0.233.
- 128 additions of at least 2 MW across 53 treated utility-state units in the support window.

The exact coefficients, intervals, sample counts, and both outcome vintages are in https://wattsmybill.org/data/causal-estimates.json.

## Threshold sensitivities

The first-threshold-crossing design dates a host utility at the first year an audited campus reaches a threshold, whether at initial operation or through later documented phases. Its counts are eligible treated utility-state units with an observed year-two outcome, not campus counts.

In the final 2012–2024 additive-year specification:

- First ≥50 MW crossing: -0.66% at year two; 15 eligible utility-state units.
- First ≥150 MW crossing: -0.67% at year two; 2 eligible utility-state units.

These are sensitivity analyses, not substitutes for the repeated-MW central estimate.

## Census coverage

The reconciled U.S. current-operating census contains 1,075 campuses totaling 64,268.54 MW. The release contains 1,044 dated source records and reports 100% accounting coverage for accepted known-capacity operating campuses. Source records, campuses, buildings, phases, aliases, and utility-state treatment units are distinct entities; use the campus-accounting and dedupe files when joining them.

## Lifecycle and Canada

The lifecycle layer contains 7 documented retirement or operator-cessation events. The Canadian descriptive layer contains 84 current-operating campuses totaling 1,426.99 MW, plus province-to-U.S. grid-link evidence. Canadian rows never enter the U.S. causal regressions.

## Wholesale-price analyses

The Bloomberg-style H3 files and direct ISO files analyze wholesale locational prices. They do not measure household retail bills. Dated data-center exposure is joined to these panels for causal and descriptive checks; consult each methods file before comparing those estimates with the residential-price analysis.

## Meeks–Pless–Qi–Wang replication attempt

The paper-style county-broadcast assignment produces +1.32% overall in the final contiguous-U.S. 2010–2024 outcome window. Documented facility serving utilities produce +2.40% overall and +1.18% at year two; matching openings to year-specific EIA territories produces +0.95% overall. The county-broadcast, serving-utility, and historical-territory joint tests of the displayed pre-treatment event-time coefficients have p=0.158, p=0.056, and p=0.720. The separate 2010–2025 early-release run gives +1.24% under county broadcast, +3.32% with documented serving utilities, +1.29% at year two, and +0.89% under historical territories; the ownership-matched price comparisons are also rerun on that vintage. All four Table 2 price outcomes are re-estimated, the complete 331-row paper-estimate crosswalk records every published coefficient and standard error, and nine investment outcomes are independently reconstructed from PUDL v2026.8.0 public Form 1 data on 103 investor-owned utilities in the final panel and 101 in the balanced preliminary 2010–2025 panel. A6/A9 therefore switch with the outcome-vintage toggle. Of the final mechanism specifications, 6 of nine county-broadcast and 8 of nine serving-utility variants reject the joint lead test. Most mechanism magnitudes do not reproduce the paper, and several reconstructed outcome means differ materially. The proprietary Aterio treatment panel and S&P rate-case panel are the remaining non-public inputs. The design audit also flags an apparent Appendix Table A11 heading reversal: 939 utilities appear under Yes and 34 under No despite the paper's 3.8% tariff prevalence. The central site estimate remains the signed repeated-MW model above. Full machine-readable results, public source hashes, and design issues are at https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_replication_summary.json, https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_public_extensions_summary.json, https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_public_extensions_summary-2025er.json, https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_public_source_manifest.csv, and https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_design_audit.csv.

## Bonaparte and Bagwe et al. replications

Bonaparte SSRN 7361819 does not disclose or release the state capacity treatment, so the analysis is explicitly a treatment-substitution reconstruction. Every reported specification is run with the audited signed stock-and-flow ledger, followed by state-plus-year fixed effects, a 2012–2024 extension, Virginia exclusions, and a high-capacity-state interaction. The longer state-plus-year specification estimates 0.314 percentage points of residential price inflation per prior-year installed GW (SE 0.376, p=0.408).

For Bagwe et al. SSRN 6685418, the public Business Insider graphic yields 1,240 rows and 1,063 distinct source IDs. The reconstruction uses annual EIA service territories, complete 2010 Census county controls, DOE county energy profiles, HIFLD point-in-polygon utility assignments, and public PUDL/FERC Form 1 Schedule 326 outcomes. The paper-style indirect residential ATT is +1.94% with post average +1.88%, compared with the reported +1.85% and +2.07%; the joint lead-test p-value is <0.001. Replacing permits with audited energizations gives +0.90% in the county panel. Using one observation per utility-state gives +2.73% overall and +3.53% post-entry across 31 treated utility-state units; the joint lead-test p-value is 0.138. The early-release 2025 utility-state result is -0.80% overall and +1.93% post-entry.

The archive publishes every one of the 128 paper-grid cells, four main control families, equal/customer/sales weighting, annual/frozen territories, permit/energization timing, utility-state event studies, mechanism transformations, derived treatment data, code, and source hashes. Raw Business Insider graphic rows are analyzed locally but not redistributed; derived utility assignments are published.

## Cohort-year support sensitivity

final: indirect residential ATT on stable state support is -0.336 (100 × log points), based on 210/210 cohort-year fits. er: indirect residential ATT on stable state support is -0.427 (100 × log points), based on 240/240 cohort-year fits. The unrestricted estimate’s resemblance to the paper is not robust to geographic comparison support. Missing early-release treated pairs are recorded separately, not imputed. See the support-audit CSVs and coverage audit.

## Serving-utility vintage decomposition

The original unbalanced-panel first-energization implementation defaults to repeated cross-sections. Its negative early-release ATT is sensitive to reporter composition, not historical price revisions. final: matched-panel residential ATT 1.852 (SE 1.397), joint lead-test p=0.216; early: matched-panel residential ATT 2.242 (SE 1.397), joint lead-test p=0.079. Both vintages also remain positive when restricted to 2025 residential reporters. The exact cohort-year accounting has no residual; it is not a unique causal decomposition of nonrandom reporting. Units are 100 times log-price differences. These tests do not change the central repeated-MW estimate. Download https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_vintage_decomposition.json and https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_vintage_audit.zip.

## Recommended audit workflow

1. Fetch https://wattsmybill.org/data/release-summary.json and record its release_id.
2. Fetch https://wattsmybill.org/data/catalog.json and select the needed dataset and resource.
3. Download the resource from its stable URL.
4. Calculate SHA-256 and compare it with the catalog or checksums file.
5. For census joins, retain source IDs and follow the campus-accounting and dedupe tables.
6. For causal results, reproduce from the flow panel and full result payload for the same outcome vintage.
7. Cite the release ID, outcome vintage, estimand, and exact resource URL.

## Stable resources

### October 2026 source and vintage refresh

Initial October 6 monthly-refresh snapshot plus the subsequent Bitdeer correction record. The original refresh archive is preserved; the separate correction JSON supersedes its Bitdeer capacity review. Historical wholesale archives were spot-checked, not extended to a new estimand.

- Refresh results and exact change accounting: https://wattsmybill.org/data/october-2026-refresh.json (SHA-256 f18eae940568bff3e952b4926288ce1eafbe6d6a5f3a1e5ef6f08c457af1c6f6)
- Subsequent Bitdeer date, stock and lifecycle corrections with source hashes: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bitdeer-corrections.json (SHA-256 3033d0637cf840139761c28f916d5f93a5324df4646e24f48fccdf7dc2e20204)
- Monthly inputs, outputs, code, and audit evidence: https://wattsmybill.org/data/october-2026-refresh.zip (SHA-256 89c4b35e3c6aa9efc3532a1b4d98bda645251b336c782951f36facb05fb53761)
- Residential monthly input panel through July 2026: https://wattsmybill.org/data/eia-residential-price-monthly-through-2026-07.csv (SHA-256 7920c9ee228da611907eae6e9370d669f7c799a7abb1d21b4a2e324db1c4854a)
- Updated monthly opening-event estimates: https://wattsmybill.org/data/monthly-event-study-through-2026-07.csv (SHA-256 5b99ed5d19ec40824b7cd0ec864b2bd72a09bdea91974b70cbc3c899f3ecb8ff)
- Updated monthly dose estimates: https://wattsmybill.org/data/monthly-dose-event-study-through-2026-07.csv (SHA-256 7810efb5c8b51ca59f13ddd71c184ecfc62def55db7f6c746914fd6b9adeb7c1)
- Updated 2025-cohort estimates: https://wattsmybill.org/data/monthly-2025-cohort-through-2026-07.csv (SHA-256 268dd76f5fd228a793ff33f080a395eb090f96ce2d22ae962e5c991b60f554e4)

### Operating data-center census

Reconciled U.S. operating-campus inventory, map-ready records, campus accounting, and row-level provenance.

- Row-level downloadable registry: https://wattsmybill.org/data/data-center-registry.csv (SHA-256 1fbb03c2a32e5c4d28b30eb4c06dca7c8c371429666668efaba4279ebd24aed0)
- Map-ready records and coordinates: https://wattsmybill.org/data/data-center-map.json (SHA-256 17bebe83846cb3543880f20f627928c906a333dfe33813b3ce618595b9cf79a5)
- Census summary and accounting totals: https://wattsmybill.org/data/current-operating-census-summary.json (SHA-256 c74e22e66907e78781fc63f52ea5ca13a4c7014caab874124332f21e5be2e768)
- Source-record to campus accounting: https://wattsmybill.org/data/facility-campus-accounting.csv (SHA-256 5f602a19492631f5d995568bbdedd75e58b4851e63b1086f2ca37394c64e0d18)
- Row-level provenance audit: https://wattsmybill.org/data/facility-provenance-audit.csv (SHA-256 9633fd1328d552865cfde53f3f77654d460a15ef6accbcb87a08cfcffe994f75)
- Duplicate-resolution log: https://wattsmybill.org/data/facility-dedupe-log.csv (SHA-256 c2a1685103e342eb64d43084c3d01f431f3506765d1ec15b1971222a30b7817a)

### Residential electricity-price causal estimates

Preferred repeated-MW estimates, first-threshold-crossing sensitivities, and complete analysis payloads for final and early-release outcome vintages.

- Compact machine-readable result summary: https://wattsmybill.org/data/causal-estimates.json (SHA-256 3ac3b4b5601fa7108071549a71e4d2ec2984b3ad1e67469169cd934944a8098f)
- Final 2012–2024 repeated-MW result payload: https://wattsmybill.org/data/repaired-cumulative-site.json (SHA-256 15b30478361f073700f79365d9e0fcbd740332d9fd546c7e797eb131e536c51a)
- Final 2012–2024 analysis-ready flow panel: https://wattsmybill.org/data/repaired-cumulative-flow-panel.csv (SHA-256 ca26a46bbc503fb5507341720237d5fb9daf81d1086b69dcf4c17040e4fd0304)
- Final threshold-sensitivity payload: https://wattsmybill.org/data/repaired-threshold-suite-site.json (SHA-256 41bd5471f8879b28b22a01c4ed94aa846dacb7abf441658705b28660145dcc1a)
- 2012–2025 early-release repeated-MW result payload: https://wattsmybill.org/data/repaired-cumulative-site-2025er.json (SHA-256 82f8357c650dfd2c3d9ab7be2ac66c5f35549293f32f760ba7c7197ba38f31c8)
- 2012–2025 early-release analysis-ready flow panel: https://wattsmybill.org/data/repaired-cumulative-flow-panel-2025er.csv (SHA-256 6d45cc3e2c5b72137b42defa08382583ec7b043ad3f1e9508ae477272777e9f8)
- Early-release threshold-sensitivity payload: https://wattsmybill.org/data/repaired-threshold-suite-site-2025er.json (SHA-256 7191fea209bfb142f0ed509ea4bce6e25effeb356ababc86799ecc1c94504d18)
- Expanded utility-mapping sensitivity: https://wattsmybill.org/data/research-supported-utility-mapping-site.json (SHA-256 b80e06113289aef6fabf677b321a78f4d3db7a79ccb5fed5afbb25f216fee700)

### Data-center lifecycle and retirement records

Documented openings, operating intervals, retirements, operator cessations, and research queue.

- Annual opening, operating-stock, and retirement series: https://wattsmybill.org/data/facility-lifecycle-series.csv (SHA-256 45c3635a2e975183ceebfd28106a72ec93bc56e934d2bb30d89a2bc18f860d93)
- Accepted retirement and cessation events: https://wattsmybill.org/data/facility-retirement-events.csv (SHA-256 0c2f14dc4428cd6a6051c450b9cef81bcbcd0d2671a529e48dc9b8f765e60f47)
- Historical operating intervals: https://wattsmybill.org/data/facility-historical-lifecycle-intervals.csv (SHA-256 9c7c5dce23947d73a99f59064ffba4bc5cd4a5cb7a4c5411885dbcbe2e112973)
- Lifecycle coverage summary: https://wattsmybill.org/data/facility-lifecycle-summary.json (SHA-256 1bf37cb46a3d039b227b56b0d50e0d2fc1935233e2a1ab63519b51b36732f890)

### Canadian operating campuses and U.S. grid links

Descriptive Canadian operating census and primary-source grid-intertie evidence. These records do not enter the U.S. causal panel.

- Reconciled Canadian current-operating campuses: https://wattsmybill.org/data/canada-current-operating-overlay.csv (SHA-256 1ff9bbc439b9fed8bbe2cab2f4d3834c4e645b4402c4779167f77083963c86cb)
- Canadian census summary: https://wattsmybill.org/data/canada-current-operating-overlay-summary.json (SHA-256 dd22e553beb9d72fdbe9261062f32eee8dcb53a2f987010b1b50608a003ebf9b)
- Province-to-U.S. grid-link evidence: https://wattsmybill.org/data/canada-us-grid-links.csv (SHA-256 a4b3874687ff84878d08add9cddddea0b4c556618a792e23e38f6837b9a3f323)
- Canadian source registry: https://wattsmybill.org/data/canada-source-registry.csv (SHA-256 554669a528463312c29d5630ff88ce3685c7e93e9e63c5fea19d4bc94c5ce504)

### Bloomberg-style H3 and public ISO wholesale-price analyses

H3-cell and ISO node/hub wholesale electricity-price panels joined to dated data-center exposure. These outcomes are wholesale prices, not residential bills.

- Downloadable H3 map and exposure data: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bloomberg-h3-causal-map.csv (SHA-256 9a22941ba6d455ddb1626e02bfdf3eabba4601e31f410a62146000d0ed6b1410)
- H3 causal specification results: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bloomberg-h3-annual-causal-results.csv (SHA-256 11eca3228f09e42f2a37fae061bde15995ea0f50a97c268e1921ebc92387e348)
- H3 methods: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bloomberg-h3-annual-causal-methods.md (SHA-256 11e1158530c7dc5fad31180ce53df8326ea25fa98778b9991dd62a1699ce7683)
- Public ISO node-month panel: https://wattsmybill.org/data/direct-iso-node-month-panel.parquet (SHA-256 71e287f48763b813ef1ff7661e9c21b9d5311b919957d17145e206fe4d7b9a1c)
- Public ISO source manifest and hashes: https://wattsmybill.org/data/direct-iso-lmp-panel-manifest.json (SHA-256 f0bed5be2bc26c5a2547e2c78849db1829f88bf56fc9f8f73c564243ab667c86)
- Public ISO coverage and result summary: https://wattsmybill.org/data/direct-iso-lmp-release-summary.json (SHA-256 9d7b8584c7e636fe87afaecdaa4db77c8c5c32ac8ae476c445f2c5057ee1a49c)

### Watten–Bistline–Blanford reconstruction and exclusion-restriction checks

Figure-recovered state-year capacity panel, paper-specification comparisons, slack variables, and reproducible reconstruction package.

- Analysis-ready figure-recovered state-year panel: https://wattsmybill.org/data/wbb-analysis-ready-figure-recovered-panel.csv (SHA-256 4c75eb39122a24dfe1a993c9aeffa1456c372cec48d635dc9349c630fb42e2d7)
- Recovered Table 2 comparison: https://wattsmybill.org/data/wbb-figure-recovered-table2.csv (SHA-256 5d7a3e7b3e5377464b57804cf53102023ccb85eef2a5aa0207f949ed540a34e2)
- Exclusion-restriction diagnostic results: https://wattsmybill.org/data/wbb-sp-gap-inversion-diagnostics.json (SHA-256 3001ba858a26a7bc373da7c7a10e0e34ad5d5037e4cbd824f2553b58f01a0a9a)
- Reproducible reconstruction archive: https://wattsmybill.org/wbb-reconstruction-package.zip (SHA-256 d21afc9e62035b4836e2c24cc3f80b7c58a38dd0cf1e5ca37f4da2ce445f7260)
- Archive manifest and checksum: https://wattsmybill.org/wbb-reconstruction-package.json (SHA-256 11a50ffa21a11d84322f00fb3f54b429fce242d66f0287fc347ccdd305a56ad8)

### Meeks–Pless–Qi–Wang treatment-substitution replication and extension

Specification-matched contiguous-U.S. Callaway–Sant’Anna replication comparing county-broadcast, documented serving-utility, and historical-territory assignments in the final 2010–2024 and partial early-release 2010–2025 EIA outcome vintages, plus investor-owned-utility public FERC Form 1 mechanism reconstructions through final 2024 and preliminary 2025 filings.

- Machine-readable replication summary: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_replication_summary.json (SHA-256 e11fbfeea96bb621732aa1898fe2bcb2b8386492ea84d5829cb62655a153b345)
- 2025 early-release replication summary: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_replication_summary-2025er.json (SHA-256 0185142e4fd59311802566f321edd0c19ca1baf39001745bf89ac1ad65cae8b0)
- Paper and treatment-substitution comparison: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_specification_comparison.csv (SHA-256 b4f0ac8d719bdcecf784fa06c91d254c0f618696b313bae3d5bd8fb1703eb2c3)
- 2025 early-release paper comparison: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_specification_comparison-2025er.csv (SHA-256 228328176e4e1aa3127cae5711355e93bdf26ff41d3afe2312e9436ea0c769c0)
- All four paper Table 2 outcomes and independent treatment mappings: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_table2_outcome_comparison.csv (SHA-256 03b368a1baba2869b594c72a5eb4067734ee7f25ab28e52a517c09964d1b3198)
- 2025 early-release four-outcome comparison: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_table2_outcome_comparison-2025er.csv (SHA-256 fed4b888932be8d82140dc498d4fa30e180ec7ee04ec2cdef0ea2b86bd2ccad8)
- Every coefficient and standard error in paper Tables 2–7 and A1–A11: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_paper_estimate_catalog.csv (SHA-256 facfd9065b12926d955f85f0308e0144ec10bcfc70348f035712a8e27e222516)
- Structured complete paper estimate inventory: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_paper_estimate_catalog.json (SHA-256 ed3bc3b70696b4167f2424c9634d213611fdf94d9f8a44854b6b715a9f518b51)
- 2–150 MW threshold and serving-utility results: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_threshold_comparison.csv (SHA-256 429908b252122fa848e9cabca1704b02d50a3f3c32ab20fb472f0f297551422c)
- 2025 early-release threshold results: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_threshold_comparison-2025er.csv (SHA-256 92a54dbb119a9c98d928ab233f54c78042ede7557f60ba6e820fac65ad691ff2)
- Event-time estimates and normalized reference period: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_event_study.csv (SHA-256 7014b96e6d95a02e9a6463f2d83cdff0b5b596e004def90bbef13c5efae9c941)
- 2025 early-release event-time estimates: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_event_study-2025er.csv (SHA-256 9ddcddd92954b02fb14ad1ea360bb9e582db17dec0ec2b36b7eaa3e5d8df3f39)
- Analysis-ready EIA utility-state panel: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_analysis_panel.csv (SHA-256 883476df99049bb1db59ca0fbc4251c2b03abc576fbc0d8a1bbafcffdecb2901)
- 2010–2025 early-release analysis-ready panel: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_analysis_panel-2025er.csv (SHA-256 debdbe9c307912e1b2914ef52b5bc567d21ed8d3ffbc90933ff620eaf327827c)
- Year-specific EIA service-territory sensitivity: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_historical_territory_sensitivity.csv (SHA-256 095cbd4a42804e295308eec22bf49cd9ea1c40f4a1f9bcefb167d180c7868820)
- 2025 early-release historical-territory sensitivity: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_historical_territory_sensitivity-2025er.csv (SHA-256 98a58da7f5fc6de7b70537325864e60ac4d175bdd8e9007100c8ed657d507ac4)
- Historical-territory event-study results: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_historical_territory_event_study.csv (SHA-256 7d7ef5cde29a5e1fe0a6a3481ff66909eeee47d82b7f57e65eef582394635488)
- 2025 early-release historical-territory event-study results: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_historical_territory_event_study-2025er.csv (SHA-256 f2f477f2a2cbc013f642d1c6f00d204689e6ef7926ad833f76a0f0cd610b93af)
- Ownership-matched control-group sensitivities: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_ownership_matched_extensions.csv (SHA-256 d9ad8d1e55898e7e50f776246d9ec38a974bff7c2df12ccb3967bdd4217a26cf)
- 2025 early-release ownership-matched control-group sensitivities: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_ownership_matched_extensions-2025er.csv (SHA-256 4ca112526915eb2a30e035cd8a54b35fb8d999bfa3ead392095f38882ddfdef4)
- Public FERC Form 1 mechanism estimates: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_public_ferc1_results.csv (SHA-256 1d2ce7437c511067676b8a4e561fa7a5860736ebd4c690e7badb08c0189d26df)
- Preliminary 2025 public FERC Form 1 mechanism estimates: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_public_ferc1_results-2025er.csv (SHA-256 360c66bd4896c9d8d34921e30890923b6dc14b56ba5790373dc12620cb0f5a1a)
- Analysis-ready public Form 1 panel: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_public_ferc1_panel.csv (SHA-256 9e5c6f9283b0ae11f510fa13d935f8588baed0482d027b6e04dc5e74c34e19a7)
- Analysis-ready public Form 1 panel through preliminary 2025 filings: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_public_ferc1_panel-2025er.csv (SHA-256 44b40d8ce0835715c50c31d7d5d7149faf4f1dff7239d19b5b7fd60d9aa0676b)
- Public-source URLs, retrieval dates, and SHA-256 hashes: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_public_source_manifest.csv (SHA-256 b20be57956da07c07d4c31bb21629378e5a3c3a62809829200621751063d64aa)
- Structured public-extension summary: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_public_extensions_summary.json (SHA-256 13e2e7890b2674b660e15c298f33ee6de5548d50306d80bec9f14236345332ca)
- Structured 2025 early-release public-extension summary: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_public_extensions_summary-2025er.json (SHA-256 6ff28d12c7f6b58c4e067204858284d9091fd746c6ed5f38b89b2020ae0dbed5)
- Paper design issues and extension tests: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_design_audit.csv (SHA-256 c7c9c3bac2ae03d3dcb7d25e5103ef0b19fccfdf9c3a3097eb25fecfc8606b6a)
- Replication methods and scope: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_methods.md (SHA-256 ac506e0ebd8b89da186e28c257d9238140f3a5633a96550e01ed3ca717d5d33d)
- Reproduction code: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_replicate.py (SHA-256 e2412b6ee7242f640697d1f4a703d7b9d9f6ebe4df233145155efea4f5f58ee7)
- Historical-territory, ownership, and Form 1 extension code: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_public_extensions.py (SHA-256 f85b4266ea8502e3e2662ccd4d863cc7ef2b8a4c4c4b73a2c46c1dac50f1f13e)
- EIA-861 parser including 2010–2011 reformatted files: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_parse_eia861.py (SHA-256 4fce62760ff0030af1d9cd7f1bc6f4862216b6be898594dc238047d21eb86494)
- Paper-estimate catalog builder: https://wattsmybill.org/data/mpqw_estimate_catalog.py (SHA-256 63f57c074f91430ae838d36ea09ba69bf2e9a3070b5e06595d3cb4071718e38a)
- Self-contained replication and extension archive: https://wattsmybill.org/mpqw-replication-package.zip (SHA-256 428da88ec65875fd2621896374020952b16ca6fe8c05092d632687f309a50d99)

### Bonaparte and Bagwe et al. replications and extensions

Public-data reconstruction and explicit coverage audit of the reported state and county specifications, all sixteen Table 2 control-set comparisons, a 128-cell robustness grid, permit-versus-energization timing, unique point assignments and county-fallback sensitivity, historical and frozen service territories, adjacency placebo, alternative price weights, utility-state inference, and seven Schedules 300/320/326 plus EIA mechanisms with twelve purchased-power variants for final 2024 and partial early-release 2025 outcome vintages.

- Final-vintage machine-readable replication summary: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_bagwe_summary.json (SHA-256 246aa8467dc010eae3658d0dfc18737ad244465ebc210980bf2cec8c22dda9a8)
- Item-by-item two-paper coverage and identification audit: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_bagwe_coverage.md (SHA-256 94472d65811cd7eb1b575d848641cf333486b814a77b425ccde7af919fb0054b)
- Standalone replication instructions: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_bagwe_README.md (SHA-256 88d0817ffb8cb6fa78d4b29fc66c82bc14abf6aec58e225bcd080ef9e69ff5ab)
- Re-estimate from the distributed analysis panels: https://wattsmybill.org/data/replay_bonaparte_bagwe_panels.py (SHA-256 aa51a2e9e7384ec7c7d356d9daac50a1663da80b02594060657bb7fbc723b2da)
- Historical-source changes and re-estimation audit, final: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_historical_reconciliation.csv (SHA-256 d79f346a2445370f8c225326843de0f4138f93ef4cefc32495c4ea78c745faf6)
- Historical-source changes and re-estimation audit, early release: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_historical_reconciliation-2025er.csv (SHA-256 d79f346a2445370f8c225326843de0f4138f93ef4cefc32495c4ea78c745faf6)
- 2002, 2008 and 2010 descriptive baselines: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_historical_descriptive_baselines.csv (SHA-256 5556282bdc1e70540b094f3d82004ad1cc7481c81a744f7b01c6abc85680abc7)
- 104 individual appendix estimate comparisons, final: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_appendix_estimate_comparison.csv (SHA-256 742bb0ebda47f0c75dbd8f138415ed6af3aa49e1d2f84d93028c17297d16bd4f)
- 104 individual appendix estimate comparisons, early release: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_appendix_estimate_comparison-2025er.csv (SHA-256 d50542fd5a8678020cfcaeefed496aa9f0f0bd2d36a78db4f722ab8097e6cf7c)
- State wild-cluster bootstrap inference, final: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_wild_cluster_bootstrap.csv (SHA-256 3f9a58f17659197ba01b4f2fe41c7bfd6214e258f1cb55db5e44bee20999e034)
- State wild-cluster bootstrap inference, early release: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_wild_cluster_bootstrap-2025er.csv (SHA-256 bb7cb8c393632a8e688cd9f0718713e43eebcf30498b3e00bc2e13a4fe048b3c)
- Historical EIA and Census source provenance: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_bagwe_additional_sources.json (SHA-256 3c7aa61dca8827339bef79e5c1669f0a2ef415bedbb669f9a2f6905068d8c2bf)
- All 80 main-table estimate/SE comparisons, final: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_main_estimate_comparison.csv (SHA-256 83e7c1fa916c3131f8f9f8d0a4f82db9430e24c9adc3bfc37515104b7b874a4e)
- All 80 main-table estimate/SE comparisons, early release: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_main_estimate_comparison-2025er.csv (SHA-256 0133eca744214d185ab2876f8e8a857c661aafe13342d775c047fe37f021f086)
- Exposure-group descriptive comparison: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_table1_comparison.csv (SHA-256 b532231939e032d133db500bc562dbec6ba5c956ba7ea97dba6dd96267baae37)
- Final cohort-year support and stable-state-support sensitivity: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_support_audit.csv (SHA-256 7e13205f3668f19c114c03ab541ffdfacb1572bde67b2d82caf9c52cf5612510)
- Early-release support sensitivity and missing treated-pair counts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_support_audit-2025er.csv (SHA-256 1b9eb5fd5f01659ea71eb210eeb84f7e0703e756f7393458b546f4a6c3a1bddf)
- Every attempted headline cohort-year comparison, final: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_cohort_time_support.csv (SHA-256 2e8f2504cf12a03a52910149e88017f29fb9c775ff3dd847c99454a039d0b5e3)
- Every attempted headline cohort-year comparison, early release: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_cohort_time_support-2025er.csv (SHA-256 e776ad21da5258203a827f5b9eac25314175555913117453d411cb768cb095a2)
- Two-paper findings and units: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_bagwe_result_note.md (SHA-256 b0c6d8fd76a19caf0f651c9eaf7dc1b0c547be21bfcef0791a46f649660af292)
- Result-cell and vintage consistency checks: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_bagwe_release_validation.json (SHA-256 85f89ae14f29eac8350704717ad9b4b06acc0a01beb970b9266322516ad91af5)
- 2025 early-release machine-readable replication summary: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_bagwe_summary-2025er.json (SHA-256 d05098b3ea152f3d881e81da272021de108baeebae6e5200592892ce5a742023)
- Bonaparte final state specification comparison: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_specifications.csv (SHA-256 a7cfbd198a2af678f04b6c7d5fd22480716478b7bd3a34e11584cd2423345468)
- Bonaparte 2025 early-release state specification comparison: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_specifications-2025er.csv (SHA-256 42dd5a3b5775218a81c4f1514c66b0ec43f7a413fa1da40f796ddba95732ba68)
- Bonaparte final analysis-ready state panel: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_state_panel.csv (SHA-256 796bbd5adda015003dfa4bd120f7b11a59537a794c73d6a91ffe648fc59aec4e)
- Bonaparte 2025 early-release analysis-ready state panel: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_state_panel-2025er.csv (SHA-256 ff27761048fc5f50fe6c909600f2067183acd5990a269ee23c1a4de583933955)
- Bagwe final county specification results: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_estimates.csv (SHA-256 cc95fa058f30eba26f435715159eea45eca4a0ee855b1bfcd70b340dc1db85e6)
- Bagwe 2025 early-release county specification results: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_estimates-2025er.csv (SHA-256 6441180b7aabea8e2cf5512d152de8aee896e7fd79a3b0f50e3bde7277406663)
- Bagwe final county event-time estimates: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_event_studies.csv (SHA-256 168a0576cdedda3ac4ecbd00ac4bd7de5c59369f6fcd3d7f5f581fb20580a8d0)
- Bagwe 2025 early-release county event-time estimates: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_event_studies-2025er.csv (SHA-256 e0cd18a116f823c92c33a3650a799d4a2229aa81dd858fddca17e5b766b0dd2d)
- Complete final 128-cell county robustness grid: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_specification_grid.csv (SHA-256 3284cada94ee65bf7bd438c04ff3de18e144e53641abf596c111106fc16048cc)
- Complete 2025 early-release 128-cell county robustness grid: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_specification_grid-2025er.csv (SHA-256 482fb60581dff89662ad739d807177eb7e343610ab06106c0d560e32faac6378)
- One-observation-per-utility-state extension results: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_utility_estimates.csv (SHA-256 5cbc0ed93175d6d24c3932de30fd9c11f790f9004429d16dcf4824f4fcd0b05c)
- 2025 early-release utility-state extension results: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_utility_estimates-2025er.csv (SHA-256 a1b97133ccda6d569d759ba08d089e2eb932f5a85343ccaa14f0c04af7b8e304)
- Final utility-state event-time estimates: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_utility_event_studies.csv (SHA-256 a89c2b8010cf068f0b8b0153f3166948e2aa1e3cdc307d9e8bf6001e196581fb)
- 2025 early-release utility-state event-time estimates: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_utility_event_studies-2025er.csv (SHA-256 59198e148cbe957ebfddf5633058a805bfab9d843dcf81a3a7a55c1167cc7c90)
- Seven final utility mechanisms and twelve purchased-power variants: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_utility_mechanisms.csv (SHA-256 7224fa76168f0509df8d267856403ba1de727520d8f6a53f052afdff02d49c14)
- Fixed 2010–24 account comparison retained in the early-release bundle: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_utility_mechanisms-2025er.csv (SHA-256 7224fa76168f0509df8d267856403ba1de727520d8f6a53f052afdff02d49c14)
- Separate 2010–25 utility-account extension: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_mechanisms_extended_2025.csv (SHA-256 f24b38895e0eee7e4c0b64555f30bd295039a44ce9fb97642d3fe923462e99e8)
- Final public Schedule 326 mechanism results: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_ferc_schedule326.csv (SHA-256 7224fa76168f0509df8d267856403ba1de727520d8f6a53f052afdff02d49c14)
- Fixed 2010–24 mechanism comparison in the early-release bundle: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_ferc_schedule326-2025er.csv (SHA-256 7224fa76168f0509df8d267856403ba1de727520d8f6a53f052afdff02d49c14)
- Complete Census baseline controls for 3,142 counties: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_census_2010_county_controls.csv (SHA-256 2ed4139e791fe1f4213d83525524b3ff77051fbb117dde9d90e8d59bca379b0c)
- Redistributable derived permit-to-utility assignments: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_bi_derived_project_utility_assignments.csv (SHA-256 32d7171d7ff9422a75ab32caf29fd5827ca94af60a2b584ac6ddce160890581a)
- Point assignments with disclosed HIFLD-overlap tie-breaker: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_bi_overlap_resolved_project_utility_assignments.csv (SHA-256 4f9d90c97779142a3c37112e1c709fe904e45c86b006d589587dfbab9ef4fef9)
- Row-level HIFLD–EIA point-assignment audit: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_bi_project_utility_crosswalk.csv (SHA-256 dcad7f63f034950000ccce853361d30205f18f7b179ee3a4a184d3b294082fef)
- Complete Census coordinate-to-county FIPS crosswalk with response hashes: https://wattsmybill.org/data/business_insider_coordinate_county_fips.json (SHA-256 c61a0c5266fc44a42cde06b31dab2e435ee4cc44ebbfcfe3066de2d36e8ab87d)
- Catalog of all reported estimates in Bagwe Tables 2–4: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_paper_reported_estimates.csv (SHA-256 12e1f3507a394c1b2806dd5731c27a2f1c62600c0dd84cec97b5197f1f5cccc3)
- Preferred final permit cohorts from unique point-to-utility assignments: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_cohorts_permit_historical_territory.csv (SHA-256 5a4077c14bb9e3e3c62d3a2a2b5ed3a572bb11d3baffbbfa718db8199f79502b)
- Preferred 2025-vintage permit cohorts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_cohorts_permit_historical_territory-2025er.csv (SHA-256 ba064cfecbbe1c6c035e9c9dc51c384b0cd5a83aefa75547b65468d97efe662e)
- Final HIFLD-overlap-resolved sensitivity cohorts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_cohorts_permit_hifld_overlap_resolved.csv (SHA-256 be0f9c03e4bdef8aa209b53bde230efa33a2dd6cf4039a2d8d60f1267887b0aa)
- 2025-vintage HIFLD-overlap-resolved sensitivity cohorts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_cohorts_permit_hifld_overlap_resolved-2025er.csv (SHA-256 db1a50873282b498106fdb1fcd8811f54a61074da3bc554c423879d540028be0)
- Final ambiguous-point county-fallback sensitivity cohorts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_cohorts_permit_with_county_fallback.csv (SHA-256 1a6015faa9fea797c1db955760e8ce4e6f375f4db6d0a6a1983b784fce0d6b95)
- 2025-vintage county-fallback sensitivity cohorts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_cohorts_permit_with_county_fallback-2025er.csv (SHA-256 1a6015faa9fea797c1db955760e8ce4e6f375f4db6d0a6a1983b784fce0d6b95)
- Final frozen-2010-territory sensitivity cohorts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_cohorts_permit_frozen_2010_territory.csv (SHA-256 8d02ddac8b02b8749abd981e98d645e080e967e165d44255c037e5ad22115f71)
- 2025-vintage frozen-territory sensitivity cohorts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_cohorts_permit_frozen_2010_territory-2025er.csv (SHA-256 8d02ddac8b02b8749abd981e98d645e080e967e165d44255c037e5ad22115f71)
- Final audited-energization cohorts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_cohorts_audited_energization.csv (SHA-256 f584411f805927e1934b523ac3003f544964ef677ce6f65f1b8ea86dc8c38e88)
- 2025-vintage audited-energization cohorts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_cohorts_audited_energization-2025er.csv (SHA-256 8dd335ac2fe2a58e669c421ce28ca6b65a71adfbc8cfe9d50a90f62661df508d)
- Final adjacent-but-not-utility-linked placebo cohorts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_cohorts_adjacent_not_utility_placebo.csv (SHA-256 e4af6a4612a01eae9728a1d01fa679fe523c288fb832de66edc610498f6689c6)
- 2025-vintage adjacency-placebo cohorts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_county_cohorts_adjacent_not_utility_placebo-2025er.csv (SHA-256 a5ed11ebd8b3835b50c0148a01f20389fb5c03261f79d48241e7e37f58ddffb1)
- Bonaparte design and reporting audit: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_design_audit.csv (SHA-256 ae8e7458f754ce300be5e257d79330495510f1ec18fefffab540ca03f1b8f2e1)
- Bagwe et al. design and reporting audit: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_design_audit.csv (SHA-256 e3eb54d8da9f4c7f2c3b0be6ab414cf3e58081f5d3ff49b6c3a14c24ad52be11)
- Source URLs, retrieval dates, byte counts, and hashes: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bonaparte_bagwe_source_manifest.json (SHA-256 7449a06479e707b900b77f4e5373542ac22dcce6b3f3a7f1e2211d2e73c9bb9a)
- Replication and extension analysis code: https://wattsmybill.org/data/replicate_bonaparte_bagwe.py (SHA-256 4a3aaa5edb021633960ee1fbd89861db7ddbfa3bf2c2fe1f1c72936fd8611498)
- Public-input acquisition code: https://wattsmybill.org/data/acquire_bonaparte_bagwe_inputs.mjs (SHA-256 753395d5aa99497225ec1f62ce625adc180ff717b8ccb996ce28b166a1796cda)
- Complete Census coordinate-to-county acquisition code: https://wattsmybill.org/data/acquire_bi_county_fips.mjs (SHA-256 b1bee5eb40636646834be4b86f0573b3994c956e661e7b6567f83c95a33ea22f)
- Replication and extension archive: https://wattsmybill.org/bonaparte-bagwe-replication-package.zip (SHA-256 8ae68f1aff903b507fc080d72e9dced336990781a006661e1c841fae67674406)
- Supplemental vintage decomposition: samples, weights, paired-panel tests and scripts: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_vintage_audit.zip (SHA-256 3406b720366b99b28d9873a3d98967a9130f2d5ca057929bb2b8a815a0c99b45)
- Exact vintage accounting and panel-mode sensitivity results: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_vintage_decomposition.json (SHA-256 dd18fe5ec63d2f2148c9618cc8751c8c17294ea8601052726db7d90dfd7b4d70)
- Vintage decomposition interpretation and reproduction guide: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_vintage_decomposition.md (SHA-256 c0f5c872ec0ac60f4b7399b57a0e414f8c0f8fb2638f4714257038f6146a9985)
- Vintage-audit identity checks and file hashes: https://wattsmybill.org/data/bagwe_vintage_validation.json (SHA-256 1d4ff63569ee6ab57c8c158ede6152595f6cf31a03187cc7492a0d628b0069f5)
- Atlas One 6 MW source documentation and inclusion decisions: https://wattsmybill.org/data/atlas_one_README.md (SHA-256 17915e14c4e14ed76079f05df8a4b5c6ebb53261cfc01115e398298a68e3cca7)
- Atlas One structured source findings: https://wattsmybill.org/data/atlas_one_findings.json (SHA-256 7f345904c392ae225438e6b03bb781037ff314be3258540713e93f2ec1e217c6)
- Atlas One source URLs, retrieval status and hashes: https://wattsmybill.org/data/atlas_one_source_manifest.json (SHA-256 25a4cb2c7be58b72d4c0c12332b2be23fbf4ff38e45de33564bbe6e2dc6dc86e)

### Replication and full audit archives

Versioned archives containing code, analysis inputs, result files, source manifests, and checksums.

- Compact replication archive: https://wattsmybill.org/replication-package.zip (SHA-256 595b006460b99957657905b0705b7a8eaf923c843b3c31dda0f7adac23681185)
- Full audit-data archive: https://wattsmybill.org/audit-data-package.zip (SHA-256 ff4f7a580d40d5de477f755c2f46e1bcf6bd7e022a8a429981fb9793f9e2d228)
- Full audit archive manifest and checksum: https://wattsmybill.org/audit-data-package.json (SHA-256 27aecefdaec844f0a6566b978ec9febee8c4a9f3e5988cf396e56d1c7a11dc1c)
- Detailed release ledger: https://wattsmybill.org/data/audit-release.json (SHA-256 8703514bd3db63203ec566736bb43397740375b98d0e867cbfb97db37883bac6)

## Reuse and provenance

Reuse terms vary by upstream source. Derived outputs are provided for audit, with source URLs and methods where permitted. Licensed third-party raw rows are not redistributed. Do not infer that a missing capacity value means zero capacity, that a permit date is an energization date, or that a province-level intertie proves a facility-level U.S. power flow.